The 2027 elections in Oyo state will not be won on slogans, titles or proximity to Government House. They will be won on formidable structure, credibility and the memory of what you did for the people when the cameras were off.
Sequel to these effects, most of the politicians currently calling themselves “Makinde’s loyalists” will not make it.
Why 2027 Will Be Different?
In 2019 and 2023, the Makinde name carried weight. “Seyi o sekan ri” was a movement which was aided by coalition. In 2023, incumbency, civil servants’ support and the G-5 aura helped drag many PDP candidates across the finish line, even those without a base.
That playbook is expired.
In 2026, the conversation in Oke-Ogun, Ogbomoso and Ibadan is no longer about party or personality. It is about performance, appointments and who actually shows up when there is no election. The 2027 voters have data, receipts and memory. They are not voting for 2019 and 2023 promises in which majority of the party men and women who worked with their sweat and blood are even pretending to be smiling while suffering. Monkeys worked Baboons are benefitting beyond measurable measures.😀
The “Self-Acclaimed Loyalist” Problem
Oyo collapsed PDP was ran like a sole proprietorship. The Local and Ward chairmen, LGA coordinators and mobilizers are loyal to Makinde, not PDP the brand. This is working because he is still holding the pen for appointments which is at the verge of collapsing.
Many of these “loyalists” have titles such as; Honourable, SA, Commissioner, LGA Chairman but no polling unit base, no visible projects and no street credibility. They are known in Government House but unknown in their wards. They only show up few weeks to elections.
Permit me to mention here, that a party ticket without a grassroots base is a car without an engine. The logo is there, but it won’t move on election day.
The G-5 Effect Made Anti-Party Activities and Defection Normal, But Trust Risky
The G-5 taught every governor and their followers that party loyalty is optional. In 2023 it was “justice and equity for the South.” In 2026 it is “instruction to defect.”
The one-man decision has created a trust deficit. Ward members now ask: “If the captain can tell us to change jerseys today, what stops him from changing again tomorrow?”
Many loyalists will hesitate to follow. Those who do may struggle to convince their wards that the move isn’t for personal gain.
Who Will Survive?
Only a handful will make it through 2027. The survivors will share 3 traits:
• Independent Structure – They are accessible and know how to manage people, they have ward coordinators, youth leaders and market women who can mobilize without a phone call from Government House.
• Visible Deliverables – Several boreholes, several roads construction and maintenance, school projects, sustainable empowerment schemes people can point to.
• Zonal Alignment – They understand whether their LGA needs federal relevance, Oke-Ogun inclusion or Ibadan protection and they speak to it.
These are not the politicians who only show up when Makinde’s convoy arrives. They are the ones who show up when there is no convoy.
Bitter Truth
“Makinde can give you appointment, platform and ticket. Only your structure can give you a mandate.”
In addition, loyalty to a leader is good. But loyalty without structure is like building your house on another man’s land. When the landowner leaves, you have no roof.
2027 will be the year of ‘compulsory political retirement’ in Oyo state. The ballot will not care about your title. It will care about your track records.
The political wave coming will not carry everyone. Only the loyalists with real base, real works and real goodwill will survive it.
And yes! We know who they are. The people know too.
Peter Ayoade is an Historian and Journalist. He writes from Ibadan, Oyo state capital.
