ANALYSIS: 2023: Tinubu, erstwhile foot soldiers and destabilising forces | Josiah Oluwole

A lot of Mr. Tinubu’s foot soldiers have either found new masters or are working to become their own masters in the unravelling political melodrama.

The ambition of a former governor of Lagos State and national leader of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Bola Tinubu, to become the next President of Nigeria in 2023 has been adjudged as akin to a kingmaker aspiring to be king.

Some dictionaries define a kingmaker as a person or group that has a great influence on royal or political succession, without themselves being a viable candidate. Kingmakers are characterised by the use of political, monetary, religious, and military powers to influence a change of government or succession.

English history records the exploits of Richard Neville, the 16th Earl of Warwick (22 November 1428 -14 April 1471), acclaimed as “Warwick the Kingmaker.” He was the eldest son of Richard Neville, 5th Earl of Salisbury. A military commander and an administrator, Warwick became Earl through marriage and was the wealthiest and most powerful English peer of his age, with his political connections transcending his country’s borders. With his fortunes of marriage and inheritance, Warwick became a notable figure in English politics.

He earned the epithet, “Kingmaker” after seeing through the deposition of two kings. He first supported Henry VI but fell out with him over a territorial dispute. His opposition turned into a full-blown rebellion and ensured the enthronement of Edward IV and the deposition of Henry VI.

His relationship with Edward IV went soar afterwards, following the king’s marriage and other foreign policies. He fell out with him and made a successful attempt to reinstall Henry VI whom he had dethroned. Although the coup was successful, the victory was short-lived, as Edward IV made a victorious comeback, defeating Warwick in battle.

This classic, in some way, parallels the political exploits of the ‘Jagaban’ of Lagos whose power to influence succession had since gone beyond the shores of Lagos.

Tinubu in the South-west

His role in taking the Southwest into mainstream politics began from the era of the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) to the now ruling APC. His experimentation in Lagos has become a model in other Southwest states of Osun, Oyo, Ekiti, and Ogun, where he played a major role in the elections of the current governors there.

His knack for identifying would-be leaders and their eventual grooming and enthronement either as governors, senators or ministers of the Federal Republic, has been seen by his admirers as a trait of a great leader whose judgment on national issues should be respected.

He is also credited with the jinx-breaking effort of ensuring that Muhammadu Buhari became the President of Nigeria in 2015. But Oluremi Tinubu, wife of the national leader, had reasons in 2018 to complain publicly that the party abandoned her husband after helping the APC to win the 2015 presidential election.

During the last governorship election in Osun State, Mr. Tinubu was quoted as saying that Osun State did not have the amount of money in his coffers, in response to the allegation that he was supporting one of his own (Gboyega Oyetola) to become governor in order to gain access to the coffers of the state.

His preference for Babajide Sanwo-Olu, over the then incumbent Lagos governor, Akinwunmi Ambode, further underscores his power to determine the outcome of any contest he is interested in. He appears to have the hearts of many Lagosians who appear to be willing to follow his leadership wherever it is heading.

In Osun, Mr. Oyetola was, and is still, the anointed candidate of Asiwaju, as Mr. Tinubu is popularly known, in spite of opposition from within the party. Even the former governor of the state, Rauf Aregbesola, had reasons to swallow his pride when Mr. Tinubu insisted on having the present governor run on the APC ticket.

Mr. Aregbesola, apparently pursuing a breakaway from the apron strings of his master and mentor, had promised to oust the sitting Osun governor by denying him the return ticket of the party. The sloganeering of the “Ambode treatment” had filled the air prior to the February 19 APC primary election. Mr. Aregbesola failed to deliver his promise to sack Mr. Oyetola, and the outcome of the primaries have, again, strengthened the arms of the pro-Tinubu group in Osun and further deepened the cracks of division between the two groups.

Mr. Tinubu’s hands, visible and invisible, are felt in the appointments into key positions at both federal and state levels. His foot soldiers have been said to be strategically placed in various elevated positions. Some are ministers, some are CEOs of federal agencies, and others are special advisers. Not to mention the Vice President, Yemi Osinbajo, whose presidential aspiration is gradually diffusing across the nation’s political landscape.

Present Disarray

However, now that Mr. Tinubu has declared his interest in the presidency, his house seems to be in disarray. His allies, some of them well trusted, have become emboldened in their personal survival and renewed self-interest. It now appears the kingmaker who wants to become a king would necessarily now need a kingmaker.

Some people working within Mr. Tinubu’s circle submit that the reason for the ‘treachery’ against the ‘Jagaban’ is the fact that some of the persons hitherto well known as his loyalists are also interested in the presidency. What is wrong with one expressing his interest to run for the exalted office of the President? Is it not their constitutional right to do so?

The bile this time, sources reveal, is hinged on the fact that they were all in the know and gave their consent when the idea of the Tinubu for President was hatched. They had also at some points sang the jingo and tacitly given their approvals. The sudden meltdown of trust and confidence is seen by the remaining loyalists of the Jagaban as a stab in the back too hard to confront.

The complexities generated by the expression of interest in the presidential race are even more intriguing with the unsubstantiated notion that the presidency may be zoned to the South-west. With this as a working thesis for many aspiring politicians from the region, the contest against Mr. Tinubu is a certainty. It was little known that such opposition would come from those within his fold and those he had helped to power or powerful positions.

Besides the rising opposition from outside the South-west region because of his recently publicised ill-health, the uprising against Mr Tinubu is becoming stronger within the region and his party where he is still the national leader. He certainly finds a strong pillar in Bisi Akande, and strong support from the Lagos State Governor, Babajide Sanwo-Olu. However, a larger number of his foot soldiers have either found new masters or are working to become their own masters in the unravelling political melodrama.

Hon. Minister of Works and Housing, Mr Babatunde Fashola, SAN during the launching of the Web Portal for sale of the National Housing Programme (NHP) completed homes to Nigerians at the Ministry of Works and Housing, Headquarters, Mabushi, Abuja on Friday, 12th November 2021.
Hon. Minister of Works and Housing, Mr. Babatunde Fashola, SAN during the launching of the Web Portal for sale of the National Housing Programme (NHP) completed homes to Nigerians at the Ministry of Works and Housing, Headquarters, Mabushi, Abuja on Friday, 12th November 2021.
Another former governor of Lagos State and Minister of Works and Housing, Babatunde Fashola, has had his own share of the prod to take a shot at the presidency. He was quoted in November 2021 as saying that he was aware of the intention of Mr Tinubu to run for the presidency. Groups have been falling over themselves in the drumming of support for his candidacy. He has, however, kept his cards close to his chest.

SWAGA, Fayemi and Osinbajo

The APC fold has suffered from the ripple effect of this situation. The aspirations have created various groupings and factions that are brazenly flying the flags of the presidential hopefuls instead of that of the party. The advent of the South West Agenda for Asiwaju 2023, also known as SWAGA, led by former senator Dayo Adeyeye, has further sown a seed of discord within the party.

In Ekiti, SWAGA is a fearsome opposition to the party structures in the state, ladened with the presumption that the governor, Kayode Fayemi, is eyeing the coveted seat of power. Mr. Fayemi’s supporters and the SWAGA hierarchy are in a cold war, which has seen many heads rolling.

If the zoning formula is adopted to favour the South-west by the APC, would Mr. Fayemi run against Mr. Tinubu? As things stand and with the courage with which a number of his loyalists are spitting rage against his move, a “yes” could now be hazarded.

However, the Special Adviser to the President on Political Matters, Babafemi Ojudu, has not hidden his opposition to Mr Tinubu’s ambition. He has argued that his stance is not a betrayal but on principle. Admitting that he had been a long-time associate of Mr Tinubu, supporting his presidential ambition was antithetical to his ideals and conscience.

These “ideals”, some believe, connect well with the ambition of Vice President Osinbajo, whose rise to the presidency had received a nudge from ‘Asiwaju’ himself. Mr Osinbajo’s presidential ambition, although yet to be officially announced, is being trumpeted by very close allies of the former governor, who have now taken sides with the VP. Mr. Ojudu had hinted in one of his public comments on the matter, that some persons were making embarrassing and threatening calls to him for what he now stands for.

Part of his submission reads as follows: “For the irritants who have been sending threatening messages to me and members of my family or calling to abuse me for not supporting Tinubu, do know that is not democracy. It is something else. I spent my youth years fighting autocracy and intolerance of the military and I am still willing and ready even now, to stand up for what I believe, even if it will cost me my life.”

Mr. Fayemi’s ambition is being championed by powerful elements within the Ekiti State APC executive committee. They have had to suspend, expel and sanction any member associated with SWAGA.

The outcome of the last primary election of the party ahead of the June 18 governorship election also reflected the fracture within the party relating to the groupings championing the 2023 aspirations of individuals. The SWAGA group lost out completely to the Fayemi group in a manner that suggested they were not wanted as long as they were still lifting the placards with the Asiwaju inscriptions. These contentions, analysts have predicted, are also likely going to play out as the party approaches the governorship election in June.

An Akure-based political commentator, Rotimi Ogunleye, believes that the seeming tumult with the fold of ‘Asiwaju’ may yet be resolved in favour of the dominant interest which he represents, as there could be behind-the-scenes exchanges that would eventually unite the forces.

“The silence from personalities like the Vice President and Fayemi, as well as others that have touted to be interested in the presidency, means that we may have to wait to see how these seemingly adversarial tendencies play out at the end of the day,” Mr. Ogunleye said. He believes that because the game of politics is deeper than ordinary people could see, there could be more to what we are seeing from what obtains in the news or social media.

He predicts that the various interest groups could eventually settle for what would benefit them collectively, rather than what would further divide and make them all lose out at the end.

Sola Fasure, Mr. Aregbesola’s spokesperson, said his principal would not shy away if the party leaders urged him to throw his hat into the presidential ring. Mr. Fasure believes that the conflict between Messrs Tinubu and Aregbesola is not strange to politics, and is, in fact, ‘the way of politics.’

He told PREMIUM TIMES that while the differences persist, efforts are on to seek resolutions. He said the governor (Oyetola) has dichotomised the party, to the extent that “bridges have been burnt” and even if a compromise is reached for the sake of winning the coming election, it will never be the same again for the party.

Mr. Tinubu’s diehard supporters remain steadfast in their support of his aspirations. Recently, Governor Sanwo-Olu said his benefactor has the “magic wand” to fix Nigeria.

But, in spite of his propensity for resolving difficult political and economic challenges, his current predicament is undermining his influence befitting a kingmaker. Like Warwick the Kingmaker, Mr Tinubu’s magic wand may be reaching its expiry date. He must make a difference, come up with novel machinations or face the end of the road.

The scenario is unpleasant, especially in the effort to get the Southwest to produce the next president. It appears something drastic needs to be done before it descends to the night of long knives.

Mr Ogunleye’s proposition appears to be the way out of the manifold challenges. The adversarial posturing of the different elements of the Tinubu movement must find a common interest in the quest for the presidency. “Disunited they go, the harder they will fall.”