In the volatile theater of Oyo State politics, where the “Pacesetter” spirit demands both intellectual depth and grassroots grit, a recent stir in Ibadan Southeast by a gubernatorial aspirant has forced a critical analysis & conversations. While the former Minister of Power, Chief Bayo Adelabu recently cast aspersions on the gubernatorial viability of Senator Sharafadeen Abiodun Alli, a. senator currently representing Oyo South Senatorial district in the National Assembly, the realities on ground are highly favorable to Alli.
However, in the cold light of electoral data, performance and political history, Adelabu’s critique is a wishful thinking and noise appearing like a warning but more like a false alarm, psychological projection of a recurring “regular customer” of defeat.
In sociology, the Primary Group Theory, pioneered by Charles Cooley posits that an individual’s most significant social ties are within their immediate family and local community. Every politics is local and for a politician, the Polling Unit is the ultimate “primary group.” It is the litmus test of character and how well grounded and connected to the grassroots.
As the late legal luminary and sage Chief Obafemi Awolowo once implied, leadership that lacks a foundation at home is a house built on sand. The verifiable records from the 2023 gubernatorial elections are haunting for Adelabu: at his own Polling Unit 10, Ward 9, Oke Oluokun, he polled a meager 38 votes, trailing behind Governor Seyi Makinde’s 60. Even in 2019, while the APC held the levers of state power, he lost his local government to opposition.
“A leader who cannot command the loyalty of his kinsmen lacks the ‘Social Capital’ necessary to govern a complex state,” says Dr. Adeola Bakare, a political sociologist. “When the data shows a consistent rejection at his ancestral home, it suggests a profound disconnect in human relations.” And no amount spinning or curse or abuses can change these facts.
Psychologically, Adelabu’s recent uncontrollable outburst can be viewed through the lens of Cognitive Dissonance. Having been “dashed” the APC ticket in 2019 and failing to deliver, and subsequently abandoning the party for Accord in 2023 only to fail again, there is a natural tendency to devalue those who have succeeded where he has stumbled, hence his misguided theatrics last weekend in Ibadan.
When you examine the enviable political records of Senator Sharafadeen Abiodun Alli, P.hD, you will be convinced that that he is an archetypal politician whose career is a masterclass in political resilience and grassroots penetration and mobilization.
While Adelabu struggles at his grandfather’s doorstep, Alli won the chairmanship election for Ibadan North Local Government at a young age of 28.
Alli’s political profile reflects a “Consensus Builder.” His 2023 senatorial victory, where he secured a 19,000-vote differential with the runner up, the highest of any senator in the state demonstrates what political scientists call “Electoral Magnetism.” The records are there to verify.
From a legalistic and structural perspective, the APC as a party relies on Party Supremacy. It is an open secret that Senator Alli enjoys the confidence of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, who has recognized the need for a candidate with a “winning DNA.”
Notable political scientist Professor Richard Joseph, famous for his work on Prebendalism in Nigeria, argues that sustainable democracy requires leaders with proven administrative and electoral values & records. Alli’s history, defeating the machinery of the late strongman of Ibadan politics, Alhaji Lamidi Adedibu twice (in 1991 and 1996) established him as a veteran of the trenches and all attempts to demarket him has backfired.
Alli has been endorsed by APC Stakeholders and all the attempts to flaunt a purported popularity and billions of naira have failed. What any right thinking person wishing Oyo APC well should do is to rally round the consensus candidate, deploy resources and support the candidate that the Party Elders, Stakeholders, members across all the 33 Local Government have endorsed in the interest of the Party. Any other narrative denigrating the party and its structure is a display of “entitlement mindset”.
When you have not shown or demonstrated capacity, no community value, consistently losing at home and at his grand father’s house and never won any election in both 2019 under APC and 2023 under Accord, you have to rejig your strategies.
Over the years, Alli has won many elections; first won personal election in the most populated Ibadan North local government in the State at age 28 in 1991; and consistently won twice Oyo South Senatorial District . He also contributed greatly to Senator Ajimobi’s electoral success of 2011 as a campaign deputy director general. If young Sharafadeen could crush Adedibu’s political machine twice in the past, his political antecedents are not in doubt.
To put it succinctly, Adelabu’s electoral record is that of a “regular customer of defeat” in the tone of Makinde’s camp who had eagerly waited for the APC to make another mistake of anointing him as it’s candidate ahead of 2027.
Why is the “noise” against Alli so loud on social media? The answer is simple: Strategic Infiltration. Agents of the current PDP administration know that Adelabu is a predictable opponent, a candidate they have defeated before and can defeat again. By fueling Adelabu’s ego, the opposition hopes to distract the APC from fielding a “battle-hardened” General like Sharafadeen Alli.
In conclusion: A word to the wise. As the 2027 horizon draws closer, the APC leadership and members must distinguish between grandstanding and governance. Leadership is not about inherited names or ministerial appointments; it is about the ability to mobilize the masses from the ward level to the state capital.
If, as the saying goes, “you cannot drive safely, it is better to stop and not get hurt,” then Chief Adelabu must show deep introspection and not damage whatever is left of his reputation.
The “Renewed Hope” agenda of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu requires builders from ground up and not spoilers. Senator Sharafadeen Alli has proven he can win the difficult battles. For the APC to reclaim Oyo State, it must follow the data, respect the “Home Base” factor, and align with the proven winner.
The people of Oyo State are no longer buying the “mirage” of elitist grandstanding. They want a Senator and a future Governor, who is at home with them at Oke Oluokun, just as he is at home with the other wonderful and great people of entire Ibadanland, Ibarapa, Oke Ogun, Oyo and Ogbomoso geopolitical zones of our dear State.
The current alignment of the Presidency with APC Oyo State and Senator Alli represents a positive and significant shift toward rewarding grassroots loyalty and mass mobilization over technocratic appointments in the upcoming 2027 electoral cycle.
….Adedokun writes from Ibadan
